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How Do I Prepare for a 90 Day Grid-Down Scenario?

90 Day Grid-Down Scenario

A 90-day grid-down scenario means an extended loss of electrical power that cascades into failures of water systems, fuel distribution, communications, refrigeration, banking, and many other services modern life depends on. Whether caused by severe weather, a cyber incident, a geomagnetic storm, infrastructure failure, or another disruption, the practical result is the same: you cannot assume the systems you normally rely on will function. Preparing for this duration is different from packing a 72-hour kit. It requires durable supplies, practical skills, realistic planning, and the ability to adapt when conditions change.

Preparation works best when it is layered. Focus first on the essentials that keep people alive and functional: water, food, shelter, sanitation, and medical care; then build outward to security, information, and community. The goal is not perfection or isolation. It is resilience: the capacity to maintain health, make decisions, and support others while systems remain offline.

Start with Realistic Planning

Begin by assessing your household. How many people? Any medical dependencies, mobility limitations, young children, or older members? What climate do you live in, and what seasonal extremes are likely during a prolonged outage? Inventory what you already have and identify the largest gaps. A written plan helps, but it should remain flexible. Conditions on day 45 may differ significantly from day 5.

Prioritize actions that buy time and reduce cascading problems. Water contamination, food spoilage, heat or cold stress, and poor sanitation create medical issues faster than most people expect. Addressing those early prevents secondary crises that are harder to manage without electricity or professional help.

Water: The Non-Negotiable Priority

An average person needs roughly one gallon of water per day for drinking and basic hygiene; more is required in heat, for cooking, or for medical needs. For 90 days, that adds up quickly. Store as much as practical in food-grade containers, and rotate it regularly. Supplement stored water with multiple treatment methods: boiling (if you can heat water), chemical treatment, filtration systems rated for bacteria and protozoa, and, where appropriate, distillation or ultraviolet options that do not rely on grid power.

Know local water sources in advance: streams, lakes, rain catchment, or wells, and understand each risk. Practice treating water so you can do it under stress. Hygiene uses significant water; plan for handwashing, dishwashing, and limited bathing with as little water as possible. Gray-water reuse for non-potable needs can stretch supplies.

Food: Calories, Nutrition, and Preparation Without Power

Aim for a combination of stored food that requires little or no preparation and food you can cook with alternative heat sources. Shelf-stable options such as rice, beans, oats, pasta, canned goods, dried fruits, nuts, and commercially packaged emergency rations form a reliable base. Calculate roughly 2,000 or more calories per adult per day and adjust for activity level and climate. Include some comfort foods and items that address specific dietary needs.

Cooking without electricity requires practice. Options include rocket stoves, propane or butane camp stoves (with adequate fuel stored safely), wood fires where permitted and practical, and solar ovens in suitable weather. Fuel storage has limits and safety considerations; using a variety of methods reduces single points of failure. Learn to cook simple, nutritious meals with minimal resources. Sprouting, foraging knowledge (where safe and legal), and basic gardening skills can extend supplies, but they should supplement rather than replace stored food for the first many weeks.

Rotation is essential. Eat what you store and replace it so nothing expires unused. Keep a simple inventory so you know what you have and when to refresh it.

Shelter, Temperature Control, and Light

Your home is the primary shelter in most scenarios, but it must function without grid power. In cold climates, focus on insulating living spaces, sealing drafts, using safe indoor heating alternatives (with strict carbon monoxide awareness and ventilation), and layering clothing and bedding. In hot climates, emphasize shading, ventilation, evaporative cooling where water allows, and activity timing to avoid peak heat.

Lighting supports safety and morale. LED lanterns, headlamps, and flashlights with rechargeable batteries paired with solar chargers or hand-crank options provide reliable light. Avoid open flames as primary lighting indoors due to fire risk. Maintain a dark, quiet sleeping area to support rest—sleep deprivation degrades decision-making over weeks.

Sanitation, Hygiene, and Medical Readiness

Without running water or sewage systems, sanitation becomes a major health risk. Plan for human waste with toilet options that contain and sanitize waste, along with sufficient supplies of bags, absorbent material, and disinfectant. Handwashing stations with treated water or sanitizer reduce disease transmission. Manage trash to avoid pests and contamination.

Build a medical kit focused on common issues during prolonged disruptions: wound care, gastrointestinal illness, pain, allergies, chronic-condition medications (with as much extra supply as policies and stability allow), and basic monitoring tools. First-aid and trauma skills matter more than specialized gear. Know how to prevent infection, manage dehydration, and recognize when a problem exceeds home care. Maintain personal hygiene as much as possible; it preserves health and morale.

Power Alternatives, Communications, and Information

Small-scale power can support critical needs. Solar panels with battery storage, hand-crank devices, and carefully managed generator use (with fuel limits and carbon monoxide precautions) help charge lights, radios, medical devices, and communication tools. Prioritize what actually needs electricity.

Information and coordination require independent communications. Battery-powered or hand-crank radios that receive AM/FM and weather bands provide one-way information. Two-way options such as FRS/GMRS or amateur radio (with proper licensing and training) support local coordination. Simplex operation—direct radio-to-radio without repeaters—is especially relevant when infrastructure is down. Practice procedures, message handling, and net discipline in advance. Written plans, maps, and contact lists that do not rely on phones remain useful when networks fail.

Security, Skills, and Community

Personal and home security planning should emphasize awareness, deterrence, and de-escalation rather than confrontation. Solid doors, lighting when available, and clear household rules reduce risk. Skills often matter more than equipment: water treatment, food preparation, first aid, basic repairs, fire safety, and navigation without GPS.

No household is fully self-sufficient for 90 days in isolation. Relationships with neighbors, community emergency response teams, and local networks multiply capability. Shared knowledge, tool libraries, watch schedules, and mutual aid reduce individual burdens. Training with others—such as CERT-style exercises focused on communications, medical response, and damage assessment—builds both competence and trust.

Putting It Together for 90 Days

A practical approach sequences priorities. Secure immediate access to water and food, stabilize temperature and sanitation, then expand capacity and redundancy. Test systems under realistic conditions: cook a weekend of meals without electricity, treat water from a natural source, run a household communication drill, or spend a night with only alternative lighting and heat. Identify friction points while the cost of failure is low.

Document key information: medication lists, family contacts, utility shut-off locations, and meeting points. Review and update the plan periodically as family circumstances, seasons, and local risks change. Avoid the trap of endless gear acquisition without corresponding skills and practice; equipment fails or runs out, but practiced skills compound.

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

Preparing for a 90-day grid-down period is ultimately about reducing vulnerability and increasing options. It does not require extreme isolation or perfection. Consistent, prioritized effort- water and food security first, followed by shelter, health, information, and community- creates meaningful resilience. The households and neighborhoods that fare best usually plan realistically, practice core skills, conserve resources carefully, and cooperate with others. Start with the highest-impact gaps in your current situation, build steadily, and treat preparedness as an ongoing capability rather than a one-time project.

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2026 Nationwide FEMA EAS Test – What You Need To Do?

2026 FEMA Nationwide EAS test

No public action is required.

The 2026 Nationwide FEMA Emergency Alert System (EAS) test is scheduled for Tuesday, November 17, 2026, at approximately 2:20 p.m. Eastern Time (11:20 a.m. Pacific Time).

What will happen

Radio and television broadcasters, cable systems, satellite radio/TV providers, and wireline video providers across the United States will briefly interrupt regular programming to air a test message. The message (in English and/or Spanish) will say something very close to:

“This is a nationwide test of the Emergency Alert System, issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, covering the United States from 2:20 to 2:50 hours ET. This is only a test. No action is required by the public.”

You will hear the familiar EAS attention tones (the dual-tone alert sound). The test is expected to last about one minute, after which normal programming resumes.

Key points for the public

  • This is only a test — it is not a real emergency.
  • No action is needed. You do not need to call anyone, leave your home, or take any protective steps.
  • No Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) will be sent to cell phones for this test (unlike the 2023 combined test). This year’s test focuses only on the traditional EAS (broadcast/cable/satellite).
  • If a real emergency or significant weather event occurs on November 17, FEMA and the FCC may postpone the test. The backup date is December 3, 2026.

Why this test happens

FEMA is required by law (IPAWS Modernization Act) to conduct nationwide tests of public alert and warning systems at least once every three years. These tests help identify technical or operational issues before a real emergency. The last nationwide EAS test was in 2023.

EAS testing protocols are defined primarily in FCC rules under 47 CFR § 11.61 (Tests of EAS procedures). These govern how Emergency Alert System (EAS) Participants—broadcasters, cable systems, satellite providers, and certain other entities—must regularly test the system to ensure readiness.

There are three main tiers of required tests:

Required Weekly Tests (RWT)

  • What it includes: EAS Header Codes + End of Message (EOM) codes only.
  • No Attention Signal (the dual-tone alert) or spoken test script is required.
  • Frequency: At least once per week, on random days and times.
  • Who originates: The EAS Participant itself (stations typically generate their own).
  • Notes:
    • Not required during the week a monthly test is conducted.
    • Digital and TV stations must test on all program streams (where applicable).
    • Larger cable systems (5,000+ subscribers) must test on all programmed channels.
    • Duration is typically very short (~10 seconds or less).

Required Monthly Tests (RMT)

  • What it includes (full sequence):
    1. EAS Header Codes
    2. Attention Signal (simultaneous 853 Hz + 960 Hz tones, at least 8 seconds)
    3. Test script (audio message)
    4. EOM codes
  • Timing windows (set by FCC rules):
    • Odd-numbered months (Jan, Mar, May, etc.): Between 8:30 a.m. and local sunset.
    • Even-numbered months (Feb, Apr, Jun, etc.): Between local sunset and 8:30 a.m.
  • Origination: Local or State Primary sources (coordinated via State Emergency Communications Committees).
  • Retransmission rule: EAS Participants must retransmit the RMT within 60 minutes of receipt.
  • Script: Developed at the state level; may be in the primary language of the participant.
  • Special cases: Certain stations (e.g., Class D non-commercial educational FM, LPFM, LPTV) may only be required to transmit the test script.

Nationwide / National Periodic Tests (NPT)

  • Event code: NPT (Nationwide Test of the Emergency Alert System).
  • Who participates: All EAS Participants must relay the message.
  • How it works: FEMA originates the test via the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) as a Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) message. It is then converted and relayed through the traditional EAS chain.
  • Content: Full sequence (Header + Attention Signal + Test Script + EOM), typically stating that it is a test and that no public action is required.
  • Notice: FCC provides at least two months’ advance notice.
  • Effect on other tests: A national test replaces the required weekly and monthly tests for the week and month in which it occurs.
  • Reporting: Participants must file results through the FCC’s EAS Test Reporting System (ETRS)—Form One (annual identification), Form Two (day-of results, typically within 48 hours), and Form Three (detailed post-test data within 45 days).

Additional Protocol Details

  • EAS Message Structure (standard four-part protocol):
    1. Preamble + EAS Header Codes
    2. Attention Signal
    3. Audio/video/text message
    4. Preamble + EOM Codes
  • Monitoring: Participants must monitor assigned sources (including polling IPAWS for CAP-formatted alerts) and be able to receive/decode both traditional EAS Protocol and CAP messages.
  • Logging: All tests and activations must be logged.
  • IPAWS Internal Tests: FEMA also sends non-disruptive, log-only Required Weekly Test messages via CAP every Monday at 11 a.m. local time in each time zone. These help participants verify CAP connectivity without interrupting programming.

For the Public

Weekly and monthly tests are routine and usually brief. You may hear the tones and a short announcement on radio or TV. National tests (like the one scheduled for November 17, 2026) are announced in advance, last about a minute, and explicitly state that no action is required.

These protocols ensure the system can deliver life-saving alerts (from the President via Emergency Action Notification, weather warnings, AMBER alerts, etc.) when needed. Non-compliance by participants can result in FCC enforcement actions.

Bottom line

If you hear or see the alert on TV or radio on November 17 around 2:20 p.m. ET, simply wait for it to end. It is a planned, routine system check. No response or action is required from the public.

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community

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The National Preparedness Framework: Civil Defense Fundamentals Forgotten?

Civil Defense

The National Preparedness Framework: Strengths, Shortfalls, and the Case for Renewed Civil Defense

CNA’s August 2026 analysis, Civil Defense in the 21st Century, provides a timely diagnosis of U.S. preparedness. It defines civil defense as “the system of protective measures and emergency relief activities conducted by civilians in case of hostile attack, sabotage, or natural disaster.” During the Cold War, this mission was central: federal entities such as the Federal Civil Defense Administration promoted public awareness (including “Duck and Cover”), fallout shelters, and population protection against large-scale military threats. After the Cold War, the terminology and distinct mission faded. Civil-defense organizations merged into emergency-management agencies, and policy shifted toward terrorism after 9/11, regional natural-disaster planning after Katrina and Rita, and public-health preparedness after H1N1.

In 2011, Presidential Policy Directive 8 established an all-hazards National Preparedness Goal. That Goal organizes capabilities around five mission areas—Prevention, Protection, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery—and drives grants, training, and exercises. It covers natural hazards, terrorism, pandemics, and cyber/industrial incidents. CNA’s central critique is that it does not treat nation-state military attack or coercion as a distinct planning scenario, even as adversaries demonstrate capability and intent to conduct cyber operations, information campaigns, sabotage, and other pressure against people, supply chains, and critical infrastructure. The 2026 National Resilience Strategy underscores the urgency of preventing adversaries from holding core U.S. interests at risk, yet the operational preparedness architecture has not fully adapted.

What the Framework Gets Right

The all-hazards approach is a genuine strength. It recognizes that many core capabilities—operational coordination, public information and warning, planning, mass care, logistics—are transferable across hazards. It correctly places primary response responsibility with local governments, which own most first-response resources and best understand local conditions. States coordinate interstate mutual aid through mechanisms such as the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) and can request federal assistance under the Stafford Act when local and state capacity is exceeded. The federal role is primarily supportive: providing resources, expertise, and coordination through FEMA and other departments when requested or when national interests are implicated. The National Incident Management System supplies a common language and scalable structures (Incident Command System, resource typing, mutual-aid guidelines) that enable interoperability. Private-sector and nonprofit partners are acknowledged as essential, reflecting the reality that most critical infrastructure is privately owned and operated.

These design choices have delivered results in countless local and regional incidents. They promote whole-community involvement and avoid the inflexibility of purely hazard-specific systems. Mutual aid itself is a proven force multiplier: when one jurisdiction is overwhelmed, neighboring or distant partners can send personnel, equipment, and expertise under pre-negotiated agreements that address liability, reimbursement, and command relationships.

Where It Falls Short

CNA identifies structural gaps that become acute in scenarios the framework underemphasizes: long-duration, widespread degradation of community lifelines (power, water, telecommunications, fuel, food distribution) caused by nation-state action, cascading extreme weather, or hybrid pressure. Operational coordination structures were not designed for simultaneous, multi-state demands competing for the same limited pool of mutual-aid resources, personnel, and specialized teams. Hurricane Helene illustrated the strain: multiple states activated their own emergency operations centers while existing regional and national coordination mechanisms struggled with scale and concurrency. Local emergency-management and public-health agencies, already thinly staffed, must simultaneously restore lifelines, manage cascading effects, and maintain continuity of government; tasks for which many are neither sized nor trained.

Legal authorities remain fragmented. The Civil Defense Act of 1950 was repealed; residual authorities live in the Stafford Act and the Defense Production Act, yet they have been used sparingly and lack a clear, uniform modern definition of civil defense. Police powers reside primarily with the states, creating friction when a federally oriented defense function collides with state-led emergency management. Private-sector critical-infrastructure operators face limited legal incentives or requirements to integrate civil-defense principles, and government tools to support or direct private restoration are constrained. Funding, exercises, and grants continue to prioritize more frequent hazards over low-probability, high-consequence nation-state scenarios. Civilian engagement in sustained, long-term preparedness is underdeveloped; the public is largely expected to wait for government rather than to serve as an active component of resilience.

When mutual aid is unavailable or saturated because multiple jurisdictions are hit simultaneously, National Guard units are committed elsewhere, or private-sector capacity is itself degraded, the system’s scalability collapses. Cascading failures multiply: power outages disable water treatment and communications; logistics break down; public trust erodes in a contested information environment. The framework’s strength in routine emergencies becomes a liability in protracted, adversary-driven crises that require whole-of-society continuity rather than rapid restoration to a pre-incident baseline.

Roles and Responsibilities

  • Local governments hold primary responsibility for immediate response, life safety, and initial consequence management. They own most fire, police, EMS, and emergency-management capacity and are best positioned to integrate community resources.
  • State governments coordinate statewide efforts, manage mutual aid (including EMAC requests and offers), activate the National Guard under state authority, and serve as the interface for federal assistance. Governors retain key decision authority over resource allocation and emergency declarations.
  • Federal government provides supplemental support under the Stafford Act and other authorities, coordinates multi-state or national-level response through FEMA’s National Response Coordination Center and Regional Response Coordination Centers, and can invoke Defense Production Act authorities for prioritization and voluntary agreements. It also sets national doctrine (National Preparedness Goal, National Planning Frameworks) and funds capability-building.
  • Private sector and nonprofits own and operate most critical infrastructure and supply chains; their continuity is essential to both civilian and military readiness. Effective response requires collaboration, not unilateral direction.
  • Individuals and communities are the foundation. In a long-duration outage or contested environment, government capacity will be finite; household and neighborhood self-sufficiency directly reduces demand on strained systems.

Building Public Readiness Where the Framework Falls Short: Civil Defense

CNA’s proposed civil-defense framework rests on three pillars: population support and consequence management; protecting economic vitality and critical infrastructure; and maintaining public cohesion and will. The public can close critical gaps by treating preparedness as a civic responsibility rather than a government service.

Practical steps include aiming for 14 days of household self-sufficiency in water, food, medications, power alternatives, and communications: long enough to blunt the worst effects of supply-chain disruption while government and mutual-aid systems reconstitute. Household emergency plans should address degraded communications (pre-arranged meeting points, out-of-area contacts, battery-powered or alternative radios). Communities can form or join local civil-defense or resilience organizations that train in first aid, light search and rescue, information verification, and neighborhood mutual support: models already explored in places such as Virginia. Schools, workplaces, faith communities, and civic groups can incorporate basic preparedness literacy and periodic drills without recreating Cold War-era theatrics.

Individuals should identify authoritative information sources in advance and practice distinguishing them from disinformation. Supporting local critical-infrastructure operators by understanding their vulnerabilities and participating in community planning strengthens the private-public link. Volunteer service with established organizations (Community Emergency Response Teams, Medical Reserve Corps, or analogous groups) builds surge capacity that does not depend on mutual aid from distant jurisdictions.

These actions do not replace the national framework; they compensate for its under-emphasis on adversary-driven, long-duration scenarios. A revised National Preparedness Goal that explicitly includes nation-state attack and coercion as planning cases, paired with sustained public investment in personal and community readiness, would align doctrine with the threat landscape CNA describes. Mutual aid remains indispensable, but it works best when a prepared public has already reduced baseline demand on the system.

Civil defense, updated for twenty-first-century threats, is the practical means of achieving that reduction.

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community

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The Cascadia Megathrust: How a Full M9.0 Rupture Looks

Cascadia

Imagine the ground beginning to move under Portland at 2:46 a.m. Six minutes and forty seconds later, the shaking has traveled the full length of a fault more than a thousand kilometers long. By 3:52, Seattle is shaking hard. This timeline comes from a simplified physics model of a full Cascadia megathrust rupture: a magnitude 9.0 earthquake that breaks roughly 1,130 kilometers of the subduction interface in one continuous event.

The model is not an official hazard map. It is an educational exercise that shows, in concrete numbers, what the physics of such a rupture implies for the Pacific Northwest coast and places as far away as Japan. Everything that follows is drawn strictly from that model’s key results, its construction methods, and the historical and probabilistic references it cites.

The Rupture Itself

The fault is the Cascadia trench, traced from real bathymetry using AWS Terrain Tiles and divided into 22 segments. The rupture is modeled using Okada’s 1985 elastic dislocation equations, with an 11-degree dip and a fault width of 130 kilometers. In the full-rupture case, the entire length fails. In some places, the seafloor rises by up to 5.4 meters. Along the coast, the land drops between 0.5 and 1.6 meters. That vertical displacement drives the tsunami.

Because the rupture takes about 6 minutes and 40 seconds to complete, strong shaking doesn’t arrive everywhere at once. Portland feels the motion at 2:46; Seattle feels it more than an hour later, at 3:52. The difference reflects the time it takes the rupture front to travel the zone and seismic waves to reach each city.

The First Waves

Once the seafloor has been permanently deformed, the water above it begins to move. The model solves the linear shallow-water equations on a 1/60-degree grid near the coast and a coarser 0.15-degree grid across the open Pacific, again using real bathymetry. The results give precise arrival times for the first wave taller than one meter:

  • Brookings: 9 minutes
  • Coos Bay: 12 minutes
  • Newport: 21 minutes
  • Cannon Beach: 30 minutes
  • Seaside: 31 minutes
  • Ocean Shores: 35 minutes

These are not the peaks. At Seaside, in water 30 meters deep, the model records a peak height of 9.1 meters 43 minutes after the rupture starts. Run-up on land is higher still. The same physics that produces a 9.1-meter wave offshore will drive water farther inland and higher up slopes once it reaches the shore.

Probabilities from 10,000 Runs

A single deterministic scenario helps illustrate the process, but the real Cascadia zone does not always rupture its entire length. The model therefore runs a 10,000-member Monte Carlo ensemble. The model draws full ruptures and southern-only ruptures in proportions consistent with the turbidite record compiled by Goldfinger and colleagues in 2012. Slip is distributed in a lognormal, patchy pattern across the fault segments.

Across those 10,000 realizations, the statistics are clear. Southern Oregon and northern California experience a wave taller than one meter in roughly three out of every four runs. Washington sees waves over one meter in 46 percent of runs. At Seaside and Cannon Beach, the numbers are more severe: a wave exceeding 5 meters occurs in about 31 percent of the simulations; a wave exceeding 10 meters occurs in about 10 percent.

These percentages are not forecasts for any particular future event. They are the relative frequencies produced by the ensemble under the model’s assumptions—full versus partial ruptures weighted by turbidite history, and heterogeneous slip.

The Distant Wave

The same tsunami that arrives at Brookings in nine minutes continues across the Pacific. The model places the first arrival in Japan at 9 hours and 15 minutes. Historical records of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, reconstructed from Japanese documents and from geologic evidence on the North American side, place the arrival at roughly 10 hours. The model’s travel time therefore matches the best available observational constraint for that earlier event.

The 1700 earthquake is known from two independent lines of evidence cited in the model documentation: ghost forests and coastal subsidence records described by Atwater and colleagues in The Orphan Tsunami of 1700. Japanese tsunami records analyzed by Satake and colleagues in 1996. Those sources fix both the approximate size of the 1700 rupture and the time of day it occurred, allowing the orphan-tsunami connection to be made.

Odds and Human Consequences

The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network estimates the probability of a full rupture at about 15 percent in the next 50 years. That figure is independent of the educational model; it is simply the reference probability the model authors invoke when discussing the likelihood of the scenario they have simulated.

For a sense of what such an event would mean on the ground, the model points to the FEMA Cascadia Rising exercise of 2016, which examined impacts across Oregon and Washington. The model does not reproduce that exercise’s casualty numbers; it simply notes the scenario as a reference for the problem’s scale. One concrete mitigation example is also cited: Ocosta Elementary School in Westport, Washington, completed in 2016 and designed as a vertical-evacuation structure.

How the Numbers Were Generated

Every quantitative claim above traces back to a specific modeling choice. The fault geometry begins with bathymetry from AWS Terrain Tiles, segmented into 22 pieces. We impose slip using the Okada elastic dislocation formula at an 11-degree dip across a 130-kilometer-wide interface. The resulting seafloor deformation becomes the initial condition for a linear shallow-water tsunami model run on nested grids of 1/60 degree near shore and 0.15 degree across the Pacific, both using real bathymetry. The Monte Carlo layer adds 10,000 realizations that mix full and southern-only ruptures according to the Goldfinger turbidite proportions and that distribute slip in a lognormal patchy fashion. We extract arrival times, peak heights, and exceedance statistics directly from those runs. We compare the Japanese travel time with the 1700 historical constraint. The 15 percent / 50-year probability and the Cascadia Rising casualty framing are external references supplied for context.

Limits of the Exercise

The authors are explicit: this is a simplified physics model intended for education, not an official hazard map. Use official tsunami inundation maps published by each state to determine real evacuation routes. The numbers shown here illustrate the physics of a full rupture and the statistical envelope of partial and full ruptures under one set of assumptions. They do not replace site-specific engineering studies or official guidance.

The model makes vivid the extreme compression of time along the southern Oregon coast, the longer but still short window farther north, the substantial chance of multi-meter waves at popular beach towns, and the fact that the same event will still be traveling across the Pacific nine hours later. Those are the concrete results of the calculation.
Source: Doomsday Math

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community

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Epic Food Crisis Not Immediately Seen Until Too Late

Epic Food Crisis

What would you do if you walked into your grocery store tomorrow and found the food your family needs gone, rationed, or priced out of reach? What if the warning signs had been visible for months, but you never recognized them?

A catastrophic food crisis doesn’t have to start with empty shelves, widespread panic, or an official declaration of emergency. It can begin quietly with failing harvests, rising fertilizer costs, fuel shortages, transportation breakdowns, and disruptions to the systems that keep food moving from farms to your table.

At first, the changes may seem manageable. Then prices surge, deliveries shrink, and familiar products disappear. By the time the crisis becomes obvious, replenishing supplies may be difficult, emergency assistance may be overwhelmed, and millions of families may be scrambling to secure their next meal.

The most dangerous moment is not when the shelves are empty. It is when the crisis is already underway, and you still believe everything is normal.

The Crisis Begins Before the Shelves Are Empty

Most people judge food security by what they see at the grocery store. If shelves are stocked and checkout lines move normally, they assume the food supply is safe.

That assumption can be misleading.

Modern food systems depend on many connected operations. Farmers need seeds, fertilizer, water, fuel, equipment, and workers. Food processors need electricity, packaging, and transportation. Grocery stores depend on distribution centers, reliable deliveries, and functioning payment systems.

A failure in one area can affect many others.

Potential early warning signs include:

  • Fertilizer and fuel prices rising sharply.
  • Farmers reporting poor harvests.
  • Severe droughts or floods affecting major agricultural regions.
  • Livestock diseases reducing meat, milk, or egg production.
  • Shipping delays and transportation disruptions.
  • Food manufacturers reducing production.
  • Grocery prices increasing faster than household income.

Your action: Pay attention to changes in food prices, agricultural conditions, and transportation disruptions. Look for repeated problems across several regions rather than reacting to one isolated shortage.

Agriculture Faces Multiple Pressures

Food production depends on conditions that people cannot fully control.

Drought can reduce crop yields. Excessive rainfall can destroy fields and delay planting. Heat waves can damage crops during critical growing periods. Pests and plant diseases can spread across agricultural regions.

Farmers may respond by planting fewer acres, changing crops, or reducing livestock herds when operating costs become too high.

These decisions can affect food supplies months or even years later.

For example, a poor grain harvest can raise animal feed costs. Higher feed costs can increase the price of meat, eggs, and dairy products. If farmers cut production in response, supplies may remain tight even after the original weather problem passes.

A crisis becomes more dangerous when several major agricultural regions experience serious disruptions at the same time.

Your action: Gradually build a household food reserve. Prioritize foods your family already eats, including grains, canned vegetables, beans, cooking oil, and protein sources. Store foods properly and rotate stock before it expires.

Rising Prices Can Hide Growing Shortages

A food crisis does not always begin with a lack of food. Sometimes the food exists, but fewer people can afford it.

When production costs rise, businesses often pass part of those costs to consumers. Families then spend more of their income on groceries, leaving less for housing, transportation, medicine, and other necessities.

People with limited savings are especially vulnerable.

As prices rise, households may purchase less meat, fresh produce, and other nutritious foods. Some may skip meals. Others may depend on food banks or assistance programs.

These changes can occur long before widespread shortages become visible.

Your action: Review your household food budget. Identify affordable meals that provide calories, protein, and essential nutrients. Learn how to prepare beans, rice, oats, lentils, canned fish, and other economical staples.

Transportation Problems Can Empty Grocery Shelves

Grocery stores generally don’t keep unlimited supplies. Many rely on frequent deliveries from regional distribution centers.

That system works well when trucks, railways, ports, fuel supplies, and warehouses operate normally.

A major storm, fuel shortage, labor disruption, cyberattack, or transportation failure can interrupt deliveries. Even when farms produce enough food, consumers may struggle to get it if it can’t reach stores.

Panic buying can make matters worse. When people purchase more than they need, stores may run out of popular items before replacement shipments arrive.

The result can be a local shortage even when food remains available elsewhere.

Your action: Maintain a rotating supply of food, drinking water, and essential household items. Avoid relying on a single grocery store or shopping trip. Learn which local resources provide food assistance during emergencies.

International Disruptions Can Spread Quickly

Food markets are connected across national borders. Countries import grain, cooking oil, fertilizer, animal feed, and other agricultural supplies.

Conflict, trade restrictions, export bans, shipping disruptions, or poor harvests can reduce the amount of food available on international markets.

When major exporters limit shipments, importing countries may compete for fewer supplies. Prices can rise, and poorer nations may struggle to purchase enough food.

These pressures can contribute to severe hunger, political instability, migration, and social unrest.

The effects do not stop at national borders. Global market disruptions can increase prices for consumers thousands of miles from the original event.

Your action: Avoid building your preparedness plan around predictions of a specific global catastrophe. Instead, prepare for practical disruptions that could affect your community, including higher prices, temporary shortages, and interrupted deliveries.

Delayed Responses Can Make the Crisis Worse

Food crises become harder to manage when warning signs are ignored.

Governments and businesses may underestimate how long a disruption will last. Families may delay preparations because grocery stores still appear normal. Farmers may need months to increase production, while food processing and transportation systems can take time to recover.

By the time the public recognizes the full problem, essential supplies may already be under pressure.

Preparedness does not require predicting the exact date or cause of a crisis. It requires recognizing that food systems have limits and that recovery takes time.

Your action: Develop a written household food plan. Start with a supply for several days, then work toward two weeks or more as your budget and storage space allow. Include drinking water, cooking methods that remain usable during power outages, and foods that meet your family’s dietary needs.

Community Preparedness Can Reduce the Damage

Households do not have to face every emergency alone.

Neighbors can share information, help older residents, support local food banks, and identify people who need assistance. Community gardens, food preservation skills, and local food networks can provide additional support.

These efforts cannot replace a functioning agricultural system, but they can reduce hardship during temporary disruptions.

A prepared community also has a better chance of identifying vulnerable residents before their situation becomes critical.

Your action: Identify local food banks, community organizations, emergency management resources, and nearby sources of locally produced food. Learn basic gardening and food preservation skills before you need them.

Prepare Before the Warning Becomes Obvious

An epic food crisis may develop through a series of small failures rather than one dramatic event. Agricultural losses, rising production costs, transportation interruptions, and international conflicts can combine to create serious problems.

No single warning sign proves that a major food crisis is coming. The practical response is to reduce your dependence on uninterrupted deliveries and last-minute shopping.

Start with these priorities:

  • Keep a rotating supply of food your family will eat.
  • Store drinking water and essential cooking supplies.
  • Learn affordable meal planning and food preservation.
  • Monitor credible information about agricultural and supply disruptions.
  • Maintain a household budget that accounts for rising food costs.
  • Build relationships with neighbors and local support organizations.

You cannot control every threat to the food supply. You can control how prepared your household is to respond.

The best time to prepare for a food crisis is while food remains available, prices are manageable, and you still have the time to make informed decisions.

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community

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CERT – Free Training To Prepare Your Family For Disaster

CERT

Would your family know what to do if a disaster struck today?

A major earthquake, wildfire, winter storm, or extended power outage can disrupt everyday life with little warning. Emergency services may be overwhelmed. Roads may become impassable. Water, electricity, and communications may fail.

You can reduce the risks by learning practical emergency skills before disaster strikes. One place to start is the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program, which offers disaster-preparedness education and hands-on training through participating local agencies.

CERT training can help you protect your family, assist your neighbors, and make better decisions when professional emergency responders cannot reach everyone immediately.

What Is CERT?

CERT stands for Community Emergency Response Team. It is a national program supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The program teaches ordinary people basic disaster response skills. It recognizes a simple reality: when a major disaster occurs, firefighters, police officers, paramedics, and other emergency personnel may have more calls than they can handle.

During those first critical hours, trained community members can help themselves and others while waiting for professional assistance.

CERT training does not turn you into a firefighter, paramedic, or rescue specialist. It teaches you how to recognize hazards, protect yourself, provide basic assistance, and work within your abilities.

Many local CERT programs offer training at no cost. Availability, course schedules, and specific requirements vary by community.

Why Should You Consider CERT Training?

Your family is your first responsibility during an emergency. Knowing what to do can help you respond calmly instead of making dangerous decisions under pressure.

CERT training helps you develop several useful skills.

  • Disaster preparedness: Identify likely hazards and prepare your household before an emergency.
  • Fire safety: Recognize fire hazards and learn basic fire suppression principles within safe limits.
  • Disaster medical operations: Learn basic first aid, triage concepts, and how to prioritize assistance.
  • Light search and rescue: Learn to assess a situation, identify hazards, and safely conduct limited rescue activities.
  • Disaster psychology: Recognize common stress reactions and learn how to provide basic emotional support.
  • Team organization: Communicate clearly, coordinate tasks, and work with others during an emergency.

These skills can help you make better decisions when normal services are disrupted.

The goal is not to take unnecessary risks. The goal is to improve your ability to protect yourself and provide appropriate assistance.

Identify the Disasters That Could Affect Your Family

Preparation starts with understanding your local risks.

A family living in Oregon may face earthquakes, wildfires, severe winter weather, flooding, extreme heat, and extended utility outages. Other regions may face hurricanes, tornadoes, or different hazards.

Start by identifying the emergencies most likely to affect your home, workplace, school, and daily travel routes.

Consider these questions:

  • Could an earthquake damage your home or block nearby roads?
  • Does wildfire threaten your neighborhood or evacuation routes?
  • How would your family manage without electricity for three days?
  • Could flooding isolate your home?
  • Do family members have medical, mobility, or communication needs?

Action task: Write down your five most likely local hazards. For each one, identify where your family would shelter, how you would communicate, and what could prevent you from leaving home.

Find Free CERT Training Near You

Local emergency management agencies, fire departments, and other participating organizations organize CERT programs.

Start with FEMA’s official CERT program website:

https://www.ready.gov/cert

You can also contact your city or county emergency management office. Ask whether a local CERT program offers introductory training, upcoming classes, or community exercises.

Many programs provide classroom instruction and practical exercises. Course length and subject matter can vary by location.

Ask these questions before registering:

  • Is the course free?
  • When does the next class begin?
  • Does the course include hands-on exercises?
  • Are there age or participation requirements?
  • Is refresher training available?
  • Can family members attend together?

Action task: Search for your local CERT program today. Write down the contact information, next available course date, and registration requirements.

Learn the Basics of Disaster Medical Care

In a major emergency, professional medical help may be delayed. Basic first aid knowledge can help you recognize urgent problems and provide appropriate assistance.

CERT courses commonly introduce disaster medical operations, including triage concepts and basic treatment skills.

You may learn how to assess a scene, recognize life-threatening conditions, control severe bleeding, and organize assistance for injured people.

Training also emphasizes personal safety. Never enter a dangerous area or attempt a rescue that exceeds your training.

Action task: Enroll in CERT training and identify a reputable first aid or CPR course. Practice your skills periodically so you can remember them under stress.

Prepare Your Family Emergency Plan

Training is most useful when you apply it at home.

Every household should have a plan for staying together, communicating, evacuating, and managing essential needs.

Your plan should include:

  • Two meeting places: one near your home and another outside your immediate neighborhood.
  • An out-of-area contact who can relay messages between family members.
  • Evacuation routes and backup routes.
  • Emergency contacts for schools, workplaces, and caregivers.
  • Plans for children, older adults, pets, and anyone with functional needs.
  • A designated location for important documents and emergency supplies.

Make sure everyone knows how to receive emergency alerts and when to follow evacuation orders.

Action task: Hold a family meeting this week. Review your plan, assign responsibilities, and practice what to do if family members are separated during a disaster.

Build an Emergency Supply Kit

Your family may need to manage without outside assistance for several days. A basic emergency kit gives you a starting point.

Include:

  • Drinking water and shelf-stable food.
  • Flashlights, extra batteries, or reliable rechargeable lights.
  • A battery-powered or hand-crank emergency radio.
  • First aid supplies and necessary medications.
  • Warm clothing, blankets, and sturdy footwear.
  • Hygiene supplies and sanitation items.
  • Phone charging equipment and backup power.
  • Copies of important documents and emergency contact information.
  • Supplies for infants, pets, and household members with specific needs.

Store supplies where you can reach them quickly. Check expiration dates, replace used items, and adjust quantities for your household.

Action task: Inventory what you already own. Make a list of missing items, then buy or assemble a few essentials each week until your kit is ready.

Practice Before Disaster Strikes

A plan that has never been tested may fail when you need it most.

Practice turning off utilities only when it is safe and you know how. Walk your evacuation routes. Test your emergency lighting. Run a household drill where everyone follows the plan.

Participate in CERT exercises if your local program offers them. Consider what worked, what caused confusion, and what needs to change.

Action task: Schedule one family emergency drill this month. Time your response, identify problems, and update your plan afterward.

Your Family’s Preparedness Starts With You

You cannot prevent every disaster. You can improve your family’s ability to respond.

CERT training offers a practical starting point. It helps you recognize hazards, build basic response skills, and assist others without putting yourself in unnecessary danger.

You do not need to learn everything at once. Start by finding a local course, preparing a family plan, and assembling essential supplies.

The next disaster may arrive with little warning. Prepare before it happens.

Take the first step today. Find your local CERT program, sign up for training, and help your family prepare better.

Official CERT Training Resources

Editorial note: Local CERT Basic Training is often free, but availability and fees vary by sponsoring agency. Confirm the cost before registering.

Wilderness First Responder Recertification – Hybrid

Wilderness First Responder

Our Hybrid Wilderness First Responder Recertification Course allows you to study the classroom material at your own pace, followed by a 1-day hands-on skill session.

Course Overview

Wilderness First Responder: Remote and Austere environments create special situations not usually encountered in urban or suburban settings. With this class, first responders in remote outdoor or austere settings will be better prepared to provide advanced first aid when faced with limited resources, longer time to care for someone, and decisions about when and how quickly to evacuate an ill or injured person.

ELIGIBILITY: Any WFR or W-EMT certificate that is current or expired no more than one year ago.

Wilderness First Responder Recertification Course Includes

Information-filled slide and video presentations covering wilderness and remote first responder training, developing an advanced understanding of emergency response in an outdoor setting, including specific techniques and considerations for various injuries and illnesses.

Class topics include

  • Preparation and Assessment
  • Preventing and Caring for Injuries and Illnesses
  • Environmental Hazards
  • Other Considerations

This hybrid course combines 8 hours of self-paced online training with 1 day of in-person scenarios and hands-on skills practice led by a Survival Med-certified instructor.

Includes a two-year Wilderness First Responder Recertification that meets the requirements for Boy Scouts/Scouting USA’s high-adventure bases, including Philmont, NICA, the National Park Service, and many more.

Prerequisite: Any WFR or W-EMT certificate that is current or expired no more than one year ago.

Wilderness First Aid Certification – Hybrid

Wilderness First Aid

Our Hybrid Wilderness First Aid Course lets you learn the classroom material at your own pace, then complete a 1-day hands-on skills session.

Course Overview

Wilderness First Aid: Remote and Austere environments create special situations not usually encountered in urban or suburban settings. This class will better prepare first aid providers in remote outdoor or austere settings to respond with first aid training when faced with limited resources, longer times to care for someone, and decisions about when and how quickly to evacuate an ill or injured person.

Learn how to handle medical emergencies when 911 is more than a quick call away.

Wilderness First Aid Course Includes

Information-filled slide presentation covering wilderness and remote first aid. From a basic understanding of emergency response in an outdoor setting to specific techniques and considerations for various injuries and illnesses.

Class topics include

  • Preparation and Assessment
  • Preventing and Caring for Injuries and Illnesses
  • Environmental Hazards
  • Other Considerations

This hybrid course combines 8 hours of self-paced online training with 1 day of in-person scenarios and hands-on skills practice. Led by a Survival Med-certified instructor.

Includes a two-year Wilderness First Aid certification that meets the requirements for Boy Scouts/Scouting USA’s high-adventure bases, including Philmont, NICA, the National Park Service, and many more.

Prerequisite

Adult CPR and AED

Stop The Bleed

Stop The Bleed

The “Stop the Bleed” course teaches individuals how to respond effectively to bleeding emergencies. It’s a crucial skill set for both everyday situations and emergencies, helping to control severe bleeding until professional medical help arrives. Here’s an overview of what you can expect from the course:

Course Objectives:

Recognize Bleeding:

  • Understand the types of bleeding (arterial, venous, capillary) and how to identify severe bleeding.

    Control Bleeding:

  • Apply Direct Pressure: Learn how to use cloths or bandages to apply pressure directly to the wound.
  • Use Tourniquets: Understand when and how to apply a tourniquet to control severe arterial bleeding from limbs.
  • Pack Wounds: For severe bleeding that doesn’t respond to direct pressure, learn how to pack the wound with gauze to control bleeding.

    Manage Shock:

  • Recognize signs of shock (e.g., pale skin, rapid pulse) and learn to manage it by keeping the person calm and comfortable and maintaining body heat.

    Hands-On Practice:

  • Practice techniques using realistic scenarios and manikins to gain confidence and skill in controlling bleeding.

Course Content:

Introduction to Bleeding:

    • Overview of anatomy related to bleeding.
    • Discussion on how bleeding can be life-threatening.

First Aid Techniques:

    • Detailed instructions on applying direct pressure, using tourniquets, and packing wounds.
    • Demonstration of proper techniques and tools.

Scenario Practice:

    • Hands-on simulations to practice and apply learned skills in a controlled environment.

Review and Certification:

    • Recap of key points and techniques.
    • Certification or acknowledgment of participation (if applicable).

How to Take the Course:

Prepare for the Course:

    • Wear comfortable clothing and be prepared to participate in hands-on activities.

Utilize Resources:

    • After completing the course, review the materials provided and practice techniques regularly to keep your skills sharp.

Importance:

Save Lives:

    • Effective bleeding control can mean the difference between life and death in an emergency.

Boost Confidence:

    • Knowing what to do in a bleeding emergency helps you act quickly and calmly.

Community Impact:

    • Training empowers you to help others in need, potentially saving lives in critical situations.

The “Stop the Bleed” course provides an invaluable skill set to handle severe bleeding emergencies effectively and confidently.

This course is two hours in length. All students will receive a certificate of completion upon completing the course. A licensed EMT, experienced in CPR/AED, First Aid, and Advanced Bleeding Control instruction, teaches the class and is certified by the American College of Surgeons and the Department of Defense. Parking is free. Class Minimum: 4 students

Cancellation & Reschedule Policy:

NO REFUND if you cancel with less than 7 days’ notice
*Cancellations received at least 7 days before class may request a refund minus a $5 processing fee or receive full credit to another class.
*Cancellations received less than 7 days but at least 24 hours before class can be rescheduled with a $10 rescheduling fee. One reschedule is allowed, and your rescheduled class must take place within 90 days of the original class date.
*Cancellations received less than 24 hours before class and “no-shows” will not be issued a refund.

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A Remarkable Lesson: Will You Be Ready Or Helpless?

Help

I have a true story to tell.

Last weekend, I traveled to a town in northern Washington for my granddaughter’s 3rd birthday. It was a wonderful time with family; childhood is precious and fleeting, so we must embrace it.

But that is not the story; the story comes from my journey home.

Now, I drive an older vehicle; she is mine, and I’ve paid for her. As she ages, she needs a bit of extra love, so it is not unusual for her to need a bit of help. On my way home to the Portland area, the temperature gauge started running a little high, so I started paying attention, decided to find an exit, and see what she needed. I passed several exits as I watched the temp rise and fall, thinking it might be a non-issue since it hadn’t gotten too high.

After about 45 minutes, I made the call and took an exit. This exit was nothing to speak of: two gas stations; one looked closed. I can’t tell you why, but I went to the one that looked closed; I know it doesn’t make sense. As I pulled in, all the pumps were fenced off. I thought that was OK; I don’t need gas.

It turns out the market was open, and another car sat at the far end of the parking strip, about 25 yards away. Their hood was up, with a gallon of water sitting on the fan shroud; they’d stopped here for the same reason. I thought, a gallon of water is a great idea, far cheaper than they would charge me for coolant out here in the middle of nowhere.

So I went into the market, used the restroom, and bought a gallon of water. When I opened my rig’s hood to check the coolant level, it looked fine, so I checked the cap. It felt loose, so I gave it a spin. It popped off, and a volcano of coolant erupted. The cap ended up somewhere in the engine compartment because I let go immediately to avoid getting burned.

Good news: no burns. Bad news: I definitely need the water now, and I need to find the cap. After the coolant settled, I filled the reservoir with water. As the last drops of water left my jug, I heard How’s it going? When I looked up, a young man with a half-full jug of water said, “I saw what happened and thought you might need this,” and handed it to me. I responded, ” Yeah, I think I opened the cap a bit prematurely”, even though it was unintentional. I thanked him and asked him what he was having trouble with.

He told me he had just done an engine swap and had lost his serpentine belt on his way to church. I remarked, ” Wow, do you think you will find one at either of these stations?” He told me he didn’t need one, as his was still OK; he just didn’t have the tools to get it back on. I told him I had tools in my rig; let me button this up, and I’ll grab them, and we’ll get it done.

When I approached his vehicle, he had already jacked it up on the passenger side and removed the wheel. I asked him why; he said it was so he could access the belt and pulleys more easily. How can I help?. This young man seemed to know what he was doing. So I set up my tools and asked him what he needed. He slipped under the vehicle; it was a small passenger car.

I stepped over to the vehicle and looked down into the engine compartment to see him and what we were working on. We started talking about the belt routing; I was looking him in the eyes when the car slid off the jack! His shocked look, and I can only assume mine, set me in motion. I stepped to the side, straddled him, grabbed the wheel well, and pulled with all my might while screaming Get out, get out of there. He slid out with some difficulty.

He sat up immediately, hand on his head, and asked, “Is it bleeding?” Should we call 911? What happened? I told him, ” It’s going to be OK. I am a trained EMT. My kit is in my rig. I can help you. He responded, Please help me!

I won’t bore you with the details; they are private anyway, but he is OK. I asked if there was someone he could call; he replied My mom but I left my phone at my friend’s house. So we used my phone to try, but she wouldn’t answer. Can I give you a lift to church, where his mom is? He agreed.

I told him we were done working on his car. I jacked it back up, put his wheel back on, and put everything away so we could lock up his vehicle. We cleaned him up a bit from all the blood; heads bleed like water balloons. We didn’t need Mom to freak out more than necessary.

I went into the church with him to tell his mom what had happened and what she needed to do next. She was very grateful that I was there to help her son; we prayed and sang a hymn.

Why did I choose that exit to pull off the freeway? Would it have turned out differently if I hadn’t? Will we ever know the answers? Maybe you already have some thoughts.

The moral of this story is: We don’t get to choose when or where we will be needed.

As Always, Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community

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