Category: Self Reliance

Today’s subject matter, Cognitive Dissonance and Normalcy Bias, comes from a recent experience of mine.

Background: I am a local CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) member and contributor. Our goal as CERT members is to be prepared to help ourselves and, if necessary, others during a disaster. One of our CERT leadership team members has approached me on several occasions to request my input on subject matter for additional training of our members. We have talked several times, and each time I have encouraged them to use my website as a resource for information and ideas. Our goal is to be prepared to be self-reliant during a disaster when resources are limited or nonexistent.

Now for the story

I was at a recent 3rd Saturday training in preparation for our 2025 Regional Exercise. It should be fun and informative.

After the meeting, this person came to me and said Your site is interesting. I responded Oh, good, you finally went there, ” and they responded, Yes and I just had to laugh.

So, I asked, What makes you laugh? Their response: The gun stuff! So I responded That is a tiny part of what my site has to offer. They responded derisively. It just makes me laugh. My family has never had guns, and I’ve never touched one or used one.

My qualifications

I have personally trained over 8,000 individuals on the safe handling and use of firearms. In addition to the laws governing their use for self-defense and the defense of others. But, most importantly, how to avoid using them and the psychological impact of taking a life. I do this for a living.

Historically, the biggest and strongest ruled over the rest, until the advent of firearms. With training, the smallest person can overcome the most violent adversary using a firearm. They are a great equalizer.

The rest of the story

So, I asked, ‘What are you planning to do when the disaster strikes, the stores are empty, and people are roaming the streets trying to find food, and they come after you?’

They very aggressively asked me to provide one instance when this had happened, right in my face. I mentioned Venezuela; it was the first example that came to mind. The escalation was unexpected.

I then asked Will you defend yourself if someone wants to do you harm? They avoided answering the question. I had to ask it three times before they responded, No, I will call 911. This is Cognitive Dissonance.

The average response time for Portland Police Bureau officers to high-priority emergency calls has significantly increased over the past decade. In 2022, the average response time was 16.4 minutes, more than double the 8.1 minutes recorded in 2016 and the 6.3 minutes in 2012. By June 2023, the average response time for high-priority calls had increased to 21 minutes.

Keep in mind that we are in a CERT training room, where we are learning to be self-reliant during a disaster when resources have been depleted.

What do you think will happen to the response times?
What do you think can happen in 21 minutes? Let alone when no one comes to help?

With that in mind, use the following definitions and guide to assess yourself.
You are your best first responder; no one will arrive before you.

Cognitive Dissonance

• Cognitive dissonance = uncomfortable mental tension when you hold contradictory beliefs, attitudes, or values, or when your behavior doesn’t match what you think you should do.
• The mind tries to reduce that tension by:
• Changing a belief or attitude
• Rationalizing the behavior
• Changing the behavior to match the belief

5 Actionable Steps to Reduce Cognitive Dissonance

Identify the conflict

• Why it helps: Naming the exact belief‑behavior mismatch makes it concrete.
• Quick tip: Write a one‑sentence statement of the dissonant pair (e.g., “I value health, but I eat fast food daily”).

Gather evidence

• Why it helps: Seeing the facts reduces emotional fog and shows where the gap really is.
• Quick tip: List the pros & cons for each side, or collect data (e.g., health statistics, meal costs).

Choose a concrete change

• Why it helps: Small, specific actions are easier to start than vague intentions.
• Quick tip: Pick ONE behavior to modify (e.g., “Replace one fast‑food lunch with a home‑made salad”).

Reframe the narrative

• Why it helps: Adjusting your internal story can align beliefs with actions without denial.
• Quick tip: Use “I’m learning to improve my diet” instead of “I’m a failure”.

Monitor and reinforce

• Why it helps: Tracking progress keeps the dissonance from resurfacing unnoticed.
• Quick tip: Use a habit tracker or journal; celebrate each successful day.

When Dissonance Persists

• Deep‑rooted beliefs – If the belief is tied to identity (e.g., political ideology), change may be slower.
  • Action: Seek respectful dialogue with people who hold opposing views; exposure can reduce rigidity over time.
• External pressure – Social or workplace expectations can prolong the conflict.
  • Action: Find allies or supportive groups that share your desired values; collective action eases the burden.
• Emotional overload – Stress can amplify dissonance.
  • Action: Practice brief stress-reduction techniques (such as 5-minute breathing or a quick walk) before tackling the conflict.

Quick “Cognitive Dissonance‑Buster” Checklist (use daily)

• Did I notice any mental tension today?
• What belief or value is clashing with my behavior?
• Is there a tiny, doable step I can take tomorrow to close the gap?
• How will I reward myself for making that step?

Cognitive Dissonance Summary

• Spot the contradictory belief‑behavior pair.
• Collect facts to see the real size of the gap.
• Pick one specific, small action to align them.
• Reframe your self‑talk to stay positive.
• Track progress and celebrate wins.

Normalcy Bias

Normalcy bias is the mental shortcut that causes people to underestimate the likelihood or impact of a disaster or significant change, as they assume “everything will continue to be as it always has been.”

How to Recognize Normalcy Bias

• Dismissal of warnings – “It can’t be that bad; we’ve gotten through worse before.”
• Delay in action – Waiting for “more information” even when a clear threat is present.
• Rationalizing the situation – Finding excuses (“the storm will pass quickly,” “the market will bounce back”).
• Under‑preparing – Not stocking supplies, not rehearsing evacuation routes, or ignoring safety drills.
• Reliance on routine – Continuing daily habits as if nothing has changed.
• Optimistic bias – Believing you’re personally less likely to be affected than others.

If several of these appear during a real or potential crisis, you’re probably experiencing normalcy bias.

Step‑by‑Step Guide to Overcome Normalcy Bias

• Pause and name the feeling
  • Catch yourself thinking “It’s not that serious” and label it: “I’m feeling normalcy bias.”
• Gather objective data
  • Check reliable sources (weather alerts, official statements, expert analysis).
  • Write down key facts: date, time, severity, and recommended actions.
• Ask three critical questions
  • What would happen if I ignore this warning?
  • What is the worst‑case scenario?
  • What simple steps can I take right now to reduce risk?
• Create a minimal action plan
  • Choose the single most effective and easiest step you can take immediately (e.g., add a water bottle to your bag, turn on a news alert, lock doors, and close windows).
• Set a short timer
  • Give yourself a concrete deadline (e.g., “I’ll finish packing an emergency kit in the next 15 minutes”).
  • Timers create urgency that counters the tendency to wait.
• Use a “pre‑mortem” thought exercise
  • Imagine the event has already happened. Ask: “What went wrong? What could I have done differently?”
• Leverage social proof
  • Discuss the situation with a trusted friend, family member, or coworker.
  • If they’re taking precautions, you’re more likely to follow suit.
• Document the decision
  • Write a quick note: “I decided to… because the data showed X risk.”
  • A written record makes the choice feel real and reduces the urge to revert to “it’s fine.”
• Review after the event
  • Reflect on:
    • Did the bias affect my response?
    • What worked well?
    • What will I change next time?
• Practice regular “what‑if” drills
  • Schedule brief, low-stakes simulations (e.g., a 5-minute fire exit walk, a quick check of emergency supplies).
  • Repeated practice normalizes potential disruptions, reducing shock when they actually occur.

Summary

• Spot the bias: Dismissal, delay, rationalizing, clinging to routine.
• Pause & label it.
• Check facts (official sources).
• Ask worst‑case questions.
• Pick ONE immediate action (set a timer).
• Do a quick “pre‑mortem.”
• Get a friend’s input (social proof).
• Write down why you acted.
• Review after the event.
• Practice small drills regularly.

Turning the vague feeling of “it’ll be fine” into concrete, time‑bound steps breaks the inertia that normalcy bias creates and helps protect you and those around you.

Stay Vigilant and Be Prepared

You play a critical role in your preparedness. By preparing yourself for the unexpected, you will become more self-reliant and a valuable asset to your community.